2011 Oscar Preview
So with that, what better time than now to start thinking seriously about the Oscar? Awards season is in full swing, and most of the “Oscar-bait movies have been, so now you can start to build some lists that actually makes sense. After scouring the field, we have broken all the major categories and compiled what we see the major candidates, nominations likely, and out of the contenders in each race.While the media large amounts of cholesterol and decidedly uncomfortable confrontations with family members, it also makes a pretty slow news day. The holiday season is officially upon us.
What are you waiting for? While most films have been seen and is definitely easier to predict the candidates at this time, the choice of winner is a little harder. Just do not know. Before you begin, a quick reminder. But that’s how the races seem to be accumulating at this time. Much could change between now and February, or things could be more or less the same. This is still very early in the season for Oscar. Hit the jump and let the guessing game begin.
Best Picture
Main candidates:
King speech
Social Network
127 Hours
Is likely to be nominated:
Black Swan
Home
Toy Story 3
The kids are alright
True Grit
The Wrestler
Out of the contenders:
Blue Valentine
City
Bone winter
Never Let Me Go
Shutter Island
The king’s speech is typical of a giant Oscar bait: it is a period piece, it is a person with disabilities to overcome obstacles and put him in England, not to mention, is a hell of a movie. As for True Grit, no one has seen the movie yet. Just do not seem to have the muscle in the elbow out some of the greatest films, though may have gotten more emotional response out of the audience for any movie this year. Disney-Pixar is the aim for the top prize with Toy Story 3, but also a bit of a longshot to win. Black Swan is another serious contender, but there is no fear that their intensity may be too much for some of the older voters in the Academy. But if something can be learned from past Oscar stations, do not count on the Coen brothers. The best picture race was a duel between the speech of the King and the Social Network for the last couple of months, but from 127 hours selection began in recent weeks, the film has been moving the fast list. Social Network is the movie that had everyone talking. At this point, it’s a bit too early to tell, but if something is going to ruin King’s speech or social networks at this time would be 127 hours. Home was refreshingly original, in a summer full of rags, but it can be seen as too commercial for the big win. Could the duo of “Slumdog Millionaire” won an Oscar for director Danny Boyle and screenwriter Simon Beaufoy has another surprise win in their hands? But there is no denying that the film has its passionate advocates. Before its release, the word from the beginning 127 hours was good, but the film has gained some serious traction since he began advocating a couple of weeks, especially in the power output James Franco. So let’s say we’re cautiously optimistic at this time.Invaded the zeitgeist with his generation-defining story, one of the most respected directors in the business, and quite possibly the best script written by Aaron Sorkin (which actually means something).
Best Director
Main candidates:
David Fincher – The Social Network
Danny Boyle – 127 Hours
Is likely to be nominated:
Tom Hooper – King Speech
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Christopher Nolan – Initial
Out of the contenders:
Joel Coen & Ethan – True Grit
Peter Weir – The Road Back
Lisa Cholodenko – The kids are alright
If True Grit lives up to the hype, expect the Coen brothers to be nominated as well. Fincher’s work on The Social Network shows masterful restraint, and Boyle was able to make a film that largely takes place in a small rock cave visually stimulating. With the voice of the King to be a favorite for Best Picture, Hooper can be expected to be in the top of the list of race director. Weir could be the wildcard in this category. He has been nominated for Best Director four times in his career and is something of an Academy favorite. It would be surprising if one of Aronofsky and Nolan were neighbors, both films are obviously driven Director, not to mention completely original. Of the 82 films that have won the best film, 60 of them have also won for best director, so these two categories are closely linked. Moreover, it is also conceivable to think that someone like David O. Cholodenko or Russell could pick up the final spot.The best director of the race is understandable, similar to the Best Film at the stroke of time. And the nominees for Best Picture enlarged to ten, many see these categories to determine the 5 “real” Best Picture nominees.
Best Supporting Actor
Main candidates:
Colin Firth – Speech by King
James Franco – 127 Hours
Is likely to be nominated:
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Mark Wahlberg – The Wrestler
Robert Duvall – Get Low
Out of the contenders:
Javier Bardem – Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Leonardo DiCaprio – Initial
Bardem has serious buzz for her performance, and could be a black horse. Gosling could easily collect a nomination given his pedigree and respect in the industry. Once again we return to King’s speech, social networks, and times 127. Again, no one has seen True Grit, so it’s a bit of a question mark right now, but it would be nice to see Bridges win two consecutive years (only Tom Hanks and Spencer Tracy have accomplished this feat).Eisenberg a bit of a long shot, I see the nomination to be his consolation this year. Ria long thought to be the favorite by a wide enough margin, but Franco’s performance has been receiving much attention lately.
Best Supporting Actress
Main candidates:
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Annette Bening – The kids are alright
Is likely to be nominated:
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter bone
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Out of the contenders:
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Tilda Swinton – I Am Love
The best actress race is one of the closest right now. Everyone in this category should be happy with the nomination, because this is a race between two women. Lawrence is an exciting newcomer Kidman is an Academy favorite.Both Portman and Bening has been anything but getting rave reviews for his performances and is very much a coin toss at this time.
Best Supporting Actor
Main candidates:
Christian Bale – The Wrestler
Geoffrey Rush – King’s Speech
Is likely to be nominated:
Mark Ruffalo – The kids are alright
Sam Rockwell – Sentencing
Michael Douglas – Wall Street: Money never sleeps
Out of the contenders:
Armie Hammer – The Social Network
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
Ed Harris – The Road Back
However, Rush could well pull an upset. His work in The Wrestler has everyone talking, and when in this category seem to lose. The latter could be the year of the bullet, after incredible performances in almost all the papers which (I think you can pretend like Terminator: Salvation never happened, right?). Garfield hammer and delivered good performances on social networks, but can be a bit too young. Douglas cancer scare most likely thinking of the Academy of him, even if he is nominated for Wall Street or the lonely man is a bit of heads or tails. Given the nostalgia for the role, and the resonance with the current economic situation, Wall Street may be the best bet. He has not won since Shine and its role in the discourse of the King is up the alley of the Academy. However, the categories of support always seem to be at the heart out of a candidate comes from left field every year, so Hammer or Garfield (or even Timberlake) could be a possibility.Rockwell does a great job in the sentence, but it probably has a better role in it somewhere down the line that the Academy rewards you for (the blame on him for snubbing the Moon has to catch up at some point).
Best Supporting Actress
Main candidates:
Melissa Leo – The Wrestler
Julianne Moore – The kids are alright
Helena Bonham Carter – King Speech
Is likely to be nominated:
Dianne Weist – Rabbit Hole
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Out of the contenders:
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Would avoid splitting their votes with Bening in the best actress, and both women have a higher probability of winning in their categories (and deservedly). Once again, True Grit is a bit of a shot in the dark, but the categories of support children’s love spectacles newcomers in advance.Although Moore’s performance in children are well is definitely a leadership role, if Focus Features is smarter than to go back to the level of support. Adams is also a safe bet, no one can deny the talent of the girl and she must win one of these someday. Bonham Carter also has a decent chance as well as indie-ones Weist and Weaver.
Here is where we are three months out of the ceremony. As I said, many things can change and much can remain the same. Nominations for the 83rd Academy Awards will be announced on January 25, and the ceremony will be held on 27 February. Expect more coverage as the date approaches.Wait for the main candidates to fluctuate a bit as Buzz up and down, but it is rare that major new candidates from scratch in the middle of December (although that’s exactly what happened with Jeff Bridges, last year) . So that’s it.
So what do you think? Any dark horse candidate they see as potential spoilersAny we missed?